The Odds of Winning Based on Cards
Getting a good hand pre flop can be a very good thing, but it’s not that common. When you get a good hand right in the beginning you can decide easily whether to call or bet or even raise without worrying about making a bad decision. However, things can change at any time once the round progresses and anything can go wrong.
That is why you should be able to know how the balance shifts from one player to another on the flop, turn or the river cards. So let’s review the odds of winning hands based on the round.
As discussed earlier, the balance of the game can shift unexpectedly as the cards are dealt and the round progresses. So let’s take an example that one person is dealt a A 8 off suited and another player is dealt an A J off suited in a heads up game.
Both players have an ace but one has a better kicker of the J and he is in a better position. So calculating the percentages, the first person has a 32% chance and the second one has a 68% chance of winning the pot.
With the second player having a better advantage, let’s consider a situation where the power is shifted and the cards 7 8 A are revealed on the board. At this point both people have an Ace pair but the first player has two pairs and at this point his chances of winning are better. At this point he has a 79% chance and the second one has a 21% chance of winning.
The second player would need one J to get ahead in the game but let’s say that on the turn the card of % hits the board. Now the second person is in a really bad shape since he doesn’t really have much chance. The percentages here are surely in favor of the first player with the odds of 93% and the second one just has a 7% chance of winning the hand.
At the last leg of the hand, the river finally reveals a J on the board which will again completely change the game for the second player. At this point the second player has a very good chance of winning if a showdown does happen. In this situation the first player also might be thinking that the pot is his with two pairs, in which case he will keep betting and make things worse for himself.